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27 July 2009

Why Iran's Election Gives Israel The Nuclear Upper Hand

The United States has for years been both a mediator and flash point for international conflict, especially in the Middle East. Now, it could be stuck between two bitter enemies' nuclear posturing. It appears that Israel could be using the United States as leverage in its war of words with Iran, which could all be led back to US-Israeli relations and a dubious Iran election.

The smoldering conflict between Israel and Iran over both nations' nuclear programs was stoked Monday when Israel's Defense Minister (at right) said that "no option should be removed from the table" regarding his nation's stance on engaging a nuclear Iran. He did, however, concede that diplomatic steps would be ideal and the first option in addressing Iran's actions in its nuclear development, which Israel says is a grave threat.

The remarks came on the visit of US Defense Secretary Robert Gates to Israel in order to help work towards a more peaceful Middle East and just a day after US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called Iran's nuclear ambitions "futile."

Tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated in recent years as Israel, thought throughout the international system to possess a nuclear weapon, has repeatedly drawn (and returned) threats from Iran, which says its nuclear program is purely for energy purposes. However, many nations believe Iran has goals of producing a nuclear weapon.

In 2005 at a conference in Asia called World Without Zionism, Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called Israel a "disgraceful stain" that "must be wiped off the map," according to a translation published by the New York Times. And this past April, Ahmadinejad triggered a walkout by UN members at a racism conference where he disputed the Holocaust.

Earlier this month, Israel sent two missile-capable war ships and a submarine through the Suez Canal as a posturing statement to Iran that it had the capability to reach the nation with its weaponry if needed.

The United States has a decades-long partnership with Israel, which has included supplying its military with weapons, which some say may extend to the nuclear category. The partnership has helped Israel remain strong in a region dominated by Muslims and strife with animosity towards the Zionist state.

That partnership had become somewhat strained within the past year as US President Barack Obama repeatedly called for dialogue with Iran regarding its nuclear program. Israel wanted its strongest ally to have no part in talks with its most bitter enemy. And in a roundabout way, Israel appears to have gotten its wish.

June 12 brought elections to Iran, which in turn brought massive waves of turmoil to the nation when widespread rumors of vote rigging led to major uprisings by Ahmadinejad's opposition supporters. A massive crackdown, including possible human rights violations, quickly soured what appeared to be a relationship between the US and Iran that could have at the very least led to the first conversation between the two nations in years. Only a week later, Iran's longtime nuclear chief stepped down from office.

With a possibly corrupt government seated in Iran, the last thing the United States would want to do is engage in talks with the Iranian government, not wanting to legitimise the government if the election were in fact rigged. It appears as though Israel noticed this, and has seized the opportunity to nuzzle up to its powerful western ally.

The United States is now in a tough spot as Israel pushes the envelope for a firm stance against Iran and its nuclear program. The US wants to ensure that Iran is not developing a nuclear weapon with its nuclear program, but does not want to anger other Middle Eastern nations it has been working to rebuild relationships with after the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan. It also wants to leave the door open the tiniest bit for a possibility of future talks with Iran, which now appear to not be coming any time soon. And at the same time, it does not want to alienate its strongest ally in the Middle East, Israel, by refuting that nation's stance on Iran.

Israel appears to know it has some wiggle room to push the envelope with the new US administration in addressing Iran, and looks to be acting swiftly, knowing that wiggle room could soon be reduced to naught. The rest of the week should be fairly telling as to how far Israel's own new government will go on the subject, as two major US advisers will be in Israel later this week.

It looks as though Israel will continue its stern offense in dealing with Iran, which is likely to issue a similarly strong response, and that the United States will again be searching for a safe spot in between.

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2 comments:

  1. ah, the tip toe game of us-mideast relations. the obama admin's stronger policy against settlement building may put more rifts in us-israel relations and will really add a new twist to this whole thing. solid writing blair.

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  2. Good stuff Blair... America is always trying to be such a playa, but now both countries are putting a squeeze on the game.

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