In Iran, Actions Speak Louder Than Words

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is, in his mind, playing his cards exactly right.

He has largely managed to keep himself out of the limelight amidst the turmoil in Iran, letting others do the talking for him. His most important mouthpiece and supporter has been Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has been an outspoken critic of protesters and staunch supporter of the election results since they were first announced more than a week ago.

When Ahmadinejad addressed his supporters last week, he blasted protesters and purported their actions as a laughable attempt to legitimize themselves and the politicians they supported. On Friday, Khamenei acted similarly. Two men who have used their mouths to express their satisfaction with the election that gave Ahmadinejad another term. Yet two men who are under ever-increasing scrutiny for being tight-lipped about an election that looks more and more like it was indeed rigged.

For Khamenei, democracy is a loose word. After all, he, as Supreme Leader of Iran, is the actual ruler of the nation. As Supreme Leader, he is the figurative Pope - the nation's divine governmental connection to Allah. And while he will hear appeals for a new vote, and even concede a "recount", he really has all the wiggle room he wants. His word is Allah's in a nation that is 98 percent Muslim. There is only one check of his power: Iran's Assembly of Experts.

Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani is the head of the Assembly of Experts, and the only man in Iran who can convince the Assembly to select or de-seat a Supreme Leader. He is also an ex-two term President and speaker of Parliament, as well as an outspoken critic of both Khamenei and Ahmadinejad, who defeated him in a runoff in the 2005 presidential election.

Late last week, Khamenei ordered five members of Rafsanjani's family arrested. He threatened "revolutionary" protesters with force from the Basij militia and Revolutionary Guard, and had other people with political ties to chief opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi arrested, including several members of his election staff.

Meanwhile, Iran's own government-run press outlet, Press TV, reported election discrepancies in at least 50 cities where more than 100 percent turnout rate was recorded. Statements said up to 3 million votes could be false or misrepresented, which still would not alter election results in any major fashion. But it seems as though those 3 million could just be the tip of the iceberg. After all, when the government-controlled press is reporting major discrepancies, something is likely afoot.

Protesters continued to march in Tehran and other cities across Iran over the weekend, often times silently, "V" signs held high in the air. Yet the Basij, Revolutionary Guard, and riot Police still showed up in full force with electric batons and automatic rifles. It is estimated that at least 20 people have died and at least 100 have been injured during protests, most as a result of the harassment from these government-backing militias. A shocking video was posted on YouTube over the weekend of a young girl, called "Neda" who was reportedly shot and killed by Basij militia. Another report in the Wall Street Journal documented the story of a family who lost their only son, shot down on his way back from drama class in Tehran.

The dead have become icons to a culture who honors those killed in duty of their nation or religion, and the opposition supporters have made Neda and others martyrs of their revolution.

Shia Muslim culture mourns their dead on the third, seventh, and fortieth days since their passing. Tuesday is the third day since at least ten protesters were killed at the hands of the militia, and people are expected to once again gather to mourn. In the 1979 revolution, fortieth days often brought the largest conflicts. Mousavi has urged his supporters to honor the dead and keep their memories, as well as hopes for a fair election, alive.

The Guardian Council's return on the inquiry demanded by opposition leaders is expected sometime this week. However, one would be naive to believe there will be any change to the announced election results. If the election was rigged, there is no turning back now for Khamenei and Ahmadinejad. They have already spoken, and their voices have resounded throughout the world's political and social arenas.

While protesters have struggled to gather to make their voices heard due to the crackdown on public gatherings in favor of the opposition, it is the actions of those oppressing their voices that speaks the loudest. With every round fired and every drop of blood shed, Khamenei, Ahmadinejad, and their supporters who have lauded their own victory so hastily since June 12, dig themselves further into a hole of doubt.

And it will be the words that they have spoken forever engraved on their headstones should the actions of the people turn that hole into a political grave.

Unrest And Uncertainty In Iran

Protesters have taken to the streets in Iran to voice their opinions that Friday's elections were rigged in favor of standing president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Many of the protesters are supporters of Ahmadinejad's largest competitor - former Iranian Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi.

The protesters claim the election results, which gave Ahamdinejad 62.63 percent of the vote and Mousavi only 33.75 percent, are highly tailored, or even reversed in value. An 85 percent turnout was reported, with many believing that Mousavi would win the election if such a number came out to vote.

Ahmadinejad's largest base of support comes from the rural and lower-class areas of Iran, where people champion his traditional, conservative style. But Mousavi was expected to win a vast majority of the younger vote in a nation where 70 percent of the population is under the age of 30.

Reports came in Friday of crackdowns on Mousavi supporters at the polls, as well as claims of arrests that barred voters from voting. Friday evening, Mousavi claimed victory after his poll-watchers reported an overwhelming response from voters in favor of the ex-Prime Minister. Not surprisingly, Ahmadinejad claimed victory just hours later, which were supported when numbers were released and backed up by a message from the Ministry of Interior.

Those numbers sparked outrage from opposition supporters, and those supporters appear to have a valid argument. Mousavi reportedly lost his home city of Tabriz, and Mehdi Kahroubi, another refrom candidate, lost his home state of Lorestan. Both seem highly unlikely according to voter analysis. But perhaps the most surprising number is Ahamdenijad's near 63 percent of the overall vote, which would make him the most popular president in Iran's history, another unlikely occurance.

Both Mousavi and Kharoubi have declared the election void and want the vote annulled by the Council of Guardians. Mousavi, who has reportedly been placed under house arrest, has also called on his supporters and other supporters of the opposition to continue protests peacefully. And while some protests have been peaceful, many have turned into clashes with police. In Tehran, protesters burned tires, garbage bins, and took to the street in opposition of the riot gear-clad police, who say they are "protecting the vote of the people." Police responded with heavy doses of pepper spray, billy clubs, and riot shields, according to sources in Tehran.

However, the so-called "vote of the people" could be anything but. Protesters are clearly outraged at the election results, but have not gone so far as to declare a revolution against the government. They say the protests are to reform the Islamic Revolution that has been a mainstay of Iranian politics for the last 30 years.

It is unclear what will come next. News out of the nation has been difficult to come by, as the government shut off mobile text messaging Friday, as well as nearly all social networking sites and international foreign news channels. Two Dutch reporters were ordered to be expelled from the country after they were arrested, and there are reports that all foreign media, including the BBC, were being kicked out. However, the social media site Twitter has avoided being blocked, and much of the news being reported is coming through via "tweets" from foreign correspondents and Iranian citizens.

Foreign governments, including the United States and several European Union members, have expressed their doubts with the legitimacy of the election results. This comes as a major blow to US president Barack Obama, whose hopes of engaging Iran in a political dialogue now seem to be slipping away. If he were to engage Iran's newly-elected government, he would lose a great deal of credibility by speaking with a government whose own credibility is now greatly in doubt.

There is speculation that the election results could spark a "Green Revolution", the color worn by Mousavi's supporters, in what some say could resemble the 1979 Islamic Revoultion that ousted the western-supported shah of Iran. That revolution was supported by a large student population, and the large number of youth supporters for Mousavi is drawing similar comparisons.

It seems as though much of what happens next will lie in Mousavi's hands. His supporters are extremely loyal to him, and though he has called for peaceful protests, a lack of real action on his behalf would likely lose him a great deal of support, and render him useless in Iran's future political arena. However, he must be careful in his actions, as the standing government obviously has a great deal of control over the nation. Word on Mousavi's next move could be coming late Sunday, as he is reported to be giving a speech in Tehran's Freedom Square.

Should Mousavi choose to act and continue to encourage protests while also pursuing actions diplomatically, there is a real possibility of revolution in Iran. If the allegations of vote doctoring are true, and the number of Mousavi and fellow opposition supporters are what they are reported to be, the will of those people could overcome the will of Ahmadenijad.