Unrest And Uncertainty In Iran

Protesters have taken to the streets in Iran to voice their opinions that Friday's elections were rigged in favor of standing president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Many of the protesters are supporters of Ahmadinejad's largest competitor - former Iranian Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi.

The protesters claim the election results, which gave Ahamdinejad 62.63 percent of the vote and Mousavi only 33.75 percent, are highly tailored, or even reversed in value. An 85 percent turnout was reported, with many believing that Mousavi would win the election if such a number came out to vote.

Ahmadinejad's largest base of support comes from the rural and lower-class areas of Iran, where people champion his traditional, conservative style. But Mousavi was expected to win a vast majority of the younger vote in a nation where 70 percent of the population is under the age of 30.

Reports came in Friday of crackdowns on Mousavi supporters at the polls, as well as claims of arrests that barred voters from voting. Friday evening, Mousavi claimed victory after his poll-watchers reported an overwhelming response from voters in favor of the ex-Prime Minister. Not surprisingly, Ahmadinejad claimed victory just hours later, which were supported when numbers were released and backed up by a message from the Ministry of Interior.

Those numbers sparked outrage from opposition supporters, and those supporters appear to have a valid argument. Mousavi reportedly lost his home city of Tabriz, and Mehdi Kahroubi, another refrom candidate, lost his home state of Lorestan. Both seem highly unlikely according to voter analysis. But perhaps the most surprising number is Ahamdenijad's near 63 percent of the overall vote, which would make him the most popular president in Iran's history, another unlikely occurance.

Both Mousavi and Kharoubi have declared the election void and want the vote annulled by the Council of Guardians. Mousavi, who has reportedly been placed under house arrest, has also called on his supporters and other supporters of the opposition to continue protests peacefully. And while some protests have been peaceful, many have turned into clashes with police. In Tehran, protesters burned tires, garbage bins, and took to the street in opposition of the riot gear-clad police, who say they are "protecting the vote of the people." Police responded with heavy doses of pepper spray, billy clubs, and riot shields, according to sources in Tehran.

However, the so-called "vote of the people" could be anything but. Protesters are clearly outraged at the election results, but have not gone so far as to declare a revolution against the government. They say the protests are to reform the Islamic Revolution that has been a mainstay of Iranian politics for the last 30 years.

It is unclear what will come next. News out of the nation has been difficult to come by, as the government shut off mobile text messaging Friday, as well as nearly all social networking sites and international foreign news channels. Two Dutch reporters were ordered to be expelled from the country after they were arrested, and there are reports that all foreign media, including the BBC, were being kicked out. However, the social media site Twitter has avoided being blocked, and much of the news being reported is coming through via "tweets" from foreign correspondents and Iranian citizens.

Foreign governments, including the United States and several European Union members, have expressed their doubts with the legitimacy of the election results. This comes as a major blow to US president Barack Obama, whose hopes of engaging Iran in a political dialogue now seem to be slipping away. If he were to engage Iran's newly-elected government, he would lose a great deal of credibility by speaking with a government whose own credibility is now greatly in doubt.

There is speculation that the election results could spark a "Green Revolution", the color worn by Mousavi's supporters, in what some say could resemble the 1979 Islamic Revoultion that ousted the western-supported shah of Iran. That revolution was supported by a large student population, and the large number of youth supporters for Mousavi is drawing similar comparisons.

It seems as though much of what happens next will lie in Mousavi's hands. His supporters are extremely loyal to him, and though he has called for peaceful protests, a lack of real action on his behalf would likely lose him a great deal of support, and render him useless in Iran's future political arena. However, he must be careful in his actions, as the standing government obviously has a great deal of control over the nation. Word on Mousavi's next move could be coming late Sunday, as he is reported to be giving a speech in Tehran's Freedom Square.

Should Mousavi choose to act and continue to encourage protests while also pursuing actions diplomatically, there is a real possibility of revolution in Iran. If the allegations of vote doctoring are true, and the number of Mousavi and fellow opposition supporters are what they are reported to be, the will of those people could overcome the will of Ahmadenijad.

China's UN Support Bad News For North Korea

Wednesday, members of the United Nations Security Council agreed in principle to sanctions on North Korea following nuclear and missile tests conducted by the secretive nation in the past six months.

The initial draft, which Security Council members are set to vote on Friday, has received support from the five permanent members (P5) of the United Nations - the United States, who took the lead in drafting the sanctions, Britain, Russia, France, and possibly most importantly - China.

China has been reluctant to side with its fellow Security Council members in making any overly-aggressive statements in response to North Korea's recent actions. They have been a traditional ally of the Communist nation, with roots tracing back to the mid-1900s, when both nations were led by Communist governments and allies against the US, Japan, and South Korea in the Korean War.

In recent years, however, the relationship has soured slightly. One of the largest sources of the two nations' distancing has been the issue of refugees. China's border with North Korea has seen an increasing amount of activity in recent years as more North Koreans attempt to emigrate to China. North Korea has taken a stance of punishing those caught trying to make the move to its western neighbors, with offenders facing up to five years in prison for their first offense.

China has not taken to North Korean defectors warmly, even going so far as to build a wall in 2006 thought to help stem the tide of refugees and smugglers. China's cold approach has been viewed as a move to put pressure on North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il to improve conditions in his country viewed largely by outsiders as an oppressed nation.

China's support of the sanctions is likely to further isolate the tiny nation on the Korean peninsula, and with support of the sanctions from Russia, North Korea's other longtime ally, North Korea appears to have been pushed into a very tight corner.

The next months will be telling as to what North Korea's future international stature will be. The sanctions demand the nation suspend its ballistic missile program and stop conducting nuclear tests. It also bans North Korea from exporting weapons, and strongly encourages countries to stop and inspect North Korean ships suspected of transporting arms.

Pyongyang has recently issued statements saying that any interception of its ships by South Korean or US vessels will be considered a hostile action, and has also said that sanctions, such as these coming from the UN, will be considered a declaration of war. North Korea has also threatened to use nuclear weapons in the event of any hostility, and the recent sentencing of two American journalists to 12 years in a forced labor camp is thought to be further politicking by Pyongyang. There are also reports that another nuclear test could be conducted later this month.

The largest test is likely to come from the imposing nations, however. It is unclear as to how far the P5 and South Korea will go to enforce the new sanctions, as all the nations seem to hold a stance of deterrence. South Korea, despite its obvious unhappiness with its northern neighbors, could be unlikely to act because it knows North Korea has up to 10,000 missiles aimed at Seoul and the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). The US has also said it does not wish to take any physical actions against North Korea.

What happens next could be anyone's guess, but it is evident that the international community has now placed an enormous amount of pressure on North Korea. With Kim Jong-Il rumored to have suffered a stroke last August and an heir-apparent purportedly named in his youngest son, Kim Jong-Un, who is also said to be far from ready to lead the country, could the 67-year-old Jong-Il make a last-ditch attempt to make North Korea a legitimate international player?

The veil covering the nation's actions has led to an international guessing game as to how much of a threat the nation actually is, but this stern response from the UN Security Council, including two of North Korea's longtime allies, shows that the international community is not taking any chances.

Drones and Displacement in Swat

Pakistan's military is pushing ground troops into cities in northwest Pakistan's Swat Valley in an attempt to rid the area of Pakistani Taliban that have had virtual control over the area for over a year. The nation's Prime Minister even went so far as to call it a "war for the country's survival."

Pakistan's army began shelling the area with mortars and aircraft fire last week to try and weaken strongholds and supply lines held by the Taliban, which seems to have proven somewhat effective as ground troops are now in place to go in to weed out the pockets of Taliban fighters.

After a mid-week meeting between Pakistan's president Asif Ali Zadari and Afghanistan's Hamid Karzai in Washington with both US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama, Zadari has so far made good on his promise to "eliminate" the Taliban in his country. At the meetings in Washington, both presidents spoke extensively about the threats of terrorism in their countries, and, evidently, the Taliban too.

US drone strikes in Pakistan have not been the most supported actions by any means of the people of Pakistan, and have put further pressure on President Zardari because of his ties with the USS. Strikes have killed dozens, if not hundreds, of civilians, and at least two confirmed strikes in the past week are said to have killed more.

Because of the nature of the fighting in Pakistan, where precision is needed but not easily available in order to get to the pockets of Taliban that often live and hide in neighborhoods and amongst civilians, many of the civilians occupants of the Swat Valley have opted to pack up and leave rather than risk being caught up in the crossfire or fighting the Taliban, as was urged by Pakistan's military.

This latest exodus from Swat could lead up to 1 million people being displaced from fighting in Pakistan. Over 500,000 have left since August, and another half a million could leave due to the current situtation. There are several international aid organizations in place to help the displaced people, but there is concern that there will not be enough supplies and cooperation to feed, water, and shelter such a massive number of people.

As most of the refugee camps lie just on the outskirts of the Swat Valley, there is also concern that fighting could spread there, creating a situation where civilians would be highly at risk, and also the concern that local governments in the area, which had a three-month stading truce with the Taliban, will be of little help in providing for the displaced citizens because of pressure from the Taliban, who are thought to be in control of some of the local governments and who many in the Swat Valley local governments are said to fear.

There is a real sense that this situation could quickly turn into an international crisis. Pakistan has about 15,000 troops fighting the Pakistani Taliban, who are said to number in the thousands. But one has to wonder if Pakistan's forces are substantial enough to take down the Taliban, something the US-led coalition in Afghanistan still hasn't done in over five years with military technology superior to that of Pakistan's. Adding to that is the concern that the hundreds of thousands of refugees will not be provided for by Pakistan's government and that NGO's and IGO's might also not be able to get as involved, which could create a major humanitarian crisis in Pakistan. Finally, in such an unstable area, the thought of another coalition to fight the Taliban, whom the US is already fighting in neighboring Afghanistan, comes to mind. US-Pakistani relations have become stronger in recent years, so might Pakistan reach out for help from the Taliban's common enemies should they run into a wall in fighting the Taliban?

The possibilities of the situation in Pakistan are many, but Pakistan's offensive against its nation's Taliban, often said to be harboring Public Enemy Number One Osama bin Laden, has to be a step in the right direction in the eyes of the United States and its war on terror. Should Zardari's troops prevail, it would be a major win for the west as well as for Pakistan, but should things fall apart, a serious crisis could be at hand.