Drones and Displacement in Swat

Pakistan's military is pushing ground troops into cities in northwest Pakistan's Swat Valley in an attempt to rid the area of Pakistani Taliban that have had virtual control over the area for over a year. The nation's Prime Minister even went so far as to call it a "war for the country's survival."

Pakistan's army began shelling the area with mortars and aircraft fire last week to try and weaken strongholds and supply lines held by the Taliban, which seems to have proven somewhat effective as ground troops are now in place to go in to weed out the pockets of Taliban fighters.

After a mid-week meeting between Pakistan's president Asif Ali Zadari and Afghanistan's Hamid Karzai in Washington with both US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama, Zadari has so far made good on his promise to "eliminate" the Taliban in his country. At the meetings in Washington, both presidents spoke extensively about the threats of terrorism in their countries, and, evidently, the Taliban too.

US drone strikes in Pakistan have not been the most supported actions by any means of the people of Pakistan, and have put further pressure on President Zardari because of his ties with the USS. Strikes have killed dozens, if not hundreds, of civilians, and at least two confirmed strikes in the past week are said to have killed more.

Because of the nature of the fighting in Pakistan, where precision is needed but not easily available in order to get to the pockets of Taliban that often live and hide in neighborhoods and amongst civilians, many of the civilians occupants of the Swat Valley have opted to pack up and leave rather than risk being caught up in the crossfire or fighting the Taliban, as was urged by Pakistan's military.

This latest exodus from Swat could lead up to 1 million people being displaced from fighting in Pakistan. Over 500,000 have left since August, and another half a million could leave due to the current situtation. There are several international aid organizations in place to help the displaced people, but there is concern that there will not be enough supplies and cooperation to feed, water, and shelter such a massive number of people.

As most of the refugee camps lie just on the outskirts of the Swat Valley, there is also concern that fighting could spread there, creating a situation where civilians would be highly at risk, and also the concern that local governments in the area, which had a three-month stading truce with the Taliban, will be of little help in providing for the displaced citizens because of pressure from the Taliban, who are thought to be in control of some of the local governments and who many in the Swat Valley local governments are said to fear.

There is a real sense that this situation could quickly turn into an international crisis. Pakistan has about 15,000 troops fighting the Pakistani Taliban, who are said to number in the thousands. But one has to wonder if Pakistan's forces are substantial enough to take down the Taliban, something the US-led coalition in Afghanistan still hasn't done in over five years with military technology superior to that of Pakistan's. Adding to that is the concern that the hundreds of thousands of refugees will not be provided for by Pakistan's government and that NGO's and IGO's might also not be able to get as involved, which could create a major humanitarian crisis in Pakistan. Finally, in such an unstable area, the thought of another coalition to fight the Taliban, whom the US is already fighting in neighboring Afghanistan, comes to mind. US-Pakistani relations have become stronger in recent years, so might Pakistan reach out for help from the Taliban's common enemies should they run into a wall in fighting the Taliban?

The possibilities of the situation in Pakistan are many, but Pakistan's offensive against its nation's Taliban, often said to be harboring Public Enemy Number One Osama bin Laden, has to be a step in the right direction in the eyes of the United States and its war on terror. Should Zardari's troops prevail, it would be a major win for the west as well as for Pakistan, but should things fall apart, a serious crisis could be at hand.