Is The West Losing The War On Terror?

I just finished up a thesis for an International Relations course titled "Politics and War" in which I researched the so-called "war on terror" and how terrorism has affected the western allied states of the United States, United Kingdom, and Israel and the Middle Eastern states of Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, and the Palestinian territories. My basic conclusion, which is stated in the last selected paragraph, was that it is a possibility the western allies may be losing this war against terrorism. A few selections:

"The “war on terror” came to be under the guise of a war against anti-American Muslim extremists, propagated by George W. Bush and his cabinet and (some say hesitantly) supported by the United Kingdom’s Prime Minister Tony Blair and other western allies in order to theoretically protect their state’s sovereignty and national security. However, nearly eight years later, it could be argued that the terrorists are winning. The Global Future defines terrorism as “the premeditated use or threat of violence perpetrated against noncombatants, usually intended to induce fear in a wider audience.” (Kegley, Raymond 2007, G-7) It is arguable that there have been few times in the history of America and the United Kingdom when such widespread fear of something or someone has been as far reaching and extensive as the “threat of terrorism”, and the fear-mongering is only fueled by the governments that say they seek so badly to quell it. The only example that immediately comes to mind of a situation even close to what has happened in the wake of terrorism in the west is the Red Scare and McCarthyism that happened in the 1950s in America, when anti-Communism sentiments washed over the United States and struck fear in a majority of Americans, propagated by the government, and for a while, unchecked by any other government body. Could the war terrorism go down as this generation’s Red Scare?"

"The United States saw one day of terrorist attacks on its soil when hijackers crashed two planes into the World Trade Center, one into the Pentagon, and one, misguidedly, into a field in Pennsylvania. Not by any means a minor ordeal, but the actions that came in the wake of September 11, all done in the name of “national security” seem to have done more to make the nation insecure; not physically perhaps, but mentally at the very least. There was the anthrax scare, but other aside from that, there has been very little physical presence of any form of terrorism in the United States. Yet the government opened Guantanamo Bay, which allowed it throw in jail without probable cause other than the supposed threat of terrorism any person it wished, even if that person lay outside its normal jurisdiction. FISA has been strengthened since 2001 and the Patriot Act, which allows for wiretapping, search and seizure, and other surveillance not normally allowed under American law was widely used by the Bush administration and is now being used by the Obama administration (Thomas, Scraton 2002, 94-9). And while there have been no terrorist attacks on US soil since September 11 and the anthrax scares, American citizens still fear another terrorist attack (Associated Press 2006). Could the government be the root cause of this? In a July 2007 report by the National Intelligence Council titled “The Terrorist Threat To The US Homeland”, the Council states numerous times that “the US will face a…terrorist threat…from Islamic terrorist groups and cells.” (National Intelligence Council 2007) The report goes on to talk about the numerous threats facing the United States: “al-Qa’ida in Iraq,” “chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear [weapons],” and “other non-Muslim terrorist groups.” The report goes on to say that despite any real action by most terrorist groups in recent time, that the NIC perceives there to be a “heightened threat” of terrorism and that “[terrorists] would not hesitate to attack the Homeland.” The whole document reads almost as a propaganda statement by the Council, using vocabulary and rhetoric that strike up anti-terrorist sentiment and patriotism just as President Bush did following 9/11. But the most important thing documents like this and hundreds of others do is fuel the fear. The general masses of Americans tend to believe whatever the government says, frankly, because they do not have a choice. However, like any other large entity, it has an agenda and works as a giant public relations machine. And the American people have proven that they will largely follow that machine without much question, living on the fear and giving the government more leeway to do what it wishes."

"It is also this support of Israel by the two largest western powers that has fueled much of the anti-western sentiments that have led to the Muslim extremist uprising in the Middle East. Since the disputed lands of Jerusalem, Gaza, and the West Bank have been such a flash point and rallying cause for the Muslim communities in the Middle East, for Israel to be supplied by the US and UK in its fight against what Muslims see as the Muslim community, it has made the two western states an easy and common target for Muslim extremists and a major recruiting tool used by terrorist organizations in what they see as a war against Islam. The United States’ assistance in helping develop nuclear capabilities and anti-ballistic shields in Israel have only furthered anti-American sentiments in Muslim states. And while the UK has not been as large of an arms supplier to Israel, their close inter-governmental ties have also formed many enemies amongst the Muslim community."

"Since 2001, the relations between the three aforementioned western states (the US, UK, and Israel) and its largely-Muslim Middle Eastern counterparts (Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Palestinian territories) have worked in a cyclical nature as terrorism has built itself to be a great asset for Muslim extremists in the Middle East for use against the west. Since conventional tactics in combating terrorism were tried, but failed by these western states, the less-powerful terrorist community has often found itself with the upper hand and with its targets constantly on their heels in an attempt to guess what is coming next. They have also succeeded in using terrorism in the theoretical sense that they have struck a genuine fear in the western communities that a terrorist attack on domestic soil is a real and legitimate threat, which has only been propagated by the governments and media of the western states. And while these western governments attempt to find ways to combat terrorism in new ways using hybrids of classical and guerilla warfare, their secondary goals of establishing democracy and dominance in the mentioned Middle Eastern states has only fueled anti-Western sentiments among Muslim extremists and created a new pool of young Jihadists and other fighters who are also at the same time adapting their methods just as quickly as is the West. And because of the nature of the cell structure of terrorist groups, winning the so-called “war on terror” has proved much more difficult than any Western premier may have thought. And while they have perhaps quelled certain potential terrorist acts from damaging their national security and infrastructure, because of the fear of terrorism instilled in the people of the US and UK, especially by their own governments and media, it is quite unlikely that future terrorist actions will subside, and quite possible that the tensions and rifts between the West and Middle East could grow and deepen as a result, and that terrorists may end up winning this “war on terror”."

Democracy Playing Its Role In India

Yesterday, India, the world's largest democracy of 714 million people, began its month-long election process, which will be staggered into five separate blocks. Polling started in the northern and eastern regions yesterday where the highest concentration of poverty-stricken Indians will cast their ballots.

The election pits the ruling Congress Party, along with some minor alliances, against the opposition party, Bharatiya Janata, a Hindu-nationalist party. India is predominantly Hindu with a Muslim minority, which should play a minor factor in how the nation votes. The BJP lost power in 2004, and seems unlikely to regain the majority because of inter-party tension.

Likely to play a key role in the elections are several regional parties which could ally with either major party to form a larger majority for one side, or could strip votes from both predominant parties, creating a situation where even the majority government are unlikely to have overwhelming power due to a fragmented government.

Still, it is promising for other pro-Democratic states that India can once again organize an election on such a massive scale. Around 800,000 voting sites will be in use, and guarding those sites from threats and attacks which have been increasingly forthcoming leading up the the election will be 2 million security personnel. Still, by Thursday evening, 14 separate attacks on polling places and trucks carrying equipment had been reported, resulting in at least 17 deaths.

Also encouraging for democracy in India was the appointment of a new lawyer for Mohammed Ajmal Amir Iman, also known as Kasab, the only terrorist captured alive in the Mumbai attacks that took place last November and left more than 170 dead and 300 wounded.

Abbas Kazmi took the role as Kasab's new lawyer after the previous lawyer was dismissed for a conflict of interest resulting from her defense of an attack victim. Kazmi acknowledged the risks of such an action, as many other appointed attorney's for the Pakistan-nationalist attacker were harassed, threatened, and even had their homes vandalised and damaged.

Kazmi called it his duty and an honor "as a democratic society" to represent Kasab, despite the obvious conflicts and contempt most Indians feel in the wake of the attacks. Mumbai's Bar Association had previously decided not to represent Kasab. Kazmi will receive government protection while the trial is ongoing.

So as India's democratic wheels turn, the pro-democracy states of the international community ought pay attention. If a state with so much diversity, inner-conflict, and class separation can set this kind of example, it may lead others to follow in similar fashion.

Will Recount In Moldova Change Anything?

A recount of nearly 1.5 million ballots began today after President Vladimir Voronin called for another look into the election in the wake of last week's massive protests in the capital city of Chisnau that left one dead, another 90 injured, and saw 200 people arrested.

The recounts will take place at more than 2,000 polling places across the ex-Soviet state. Opposition parties are boycotting the recount, saying that if they were to participate, it would only legitimise the results when tallied up. Voronin's Communist party has been accused of adding up to 400,000 ballots, some accounting for people living abroad and some for people already dead, according to opposition leaders.

However, the recount begs the question: if the elections were rigged in the first place, how will a recount by the same party leaders come up with any differing results? While Voronin's party vehemently denies any such tampering, early exit polls in the election showed the party winning 38% of the votes, only to come out of the elections with 50%, a majority which would allow the party to amend the constitution and give Voronin a third term currently not allowed under Moldovan law.

It seems that when all is said and done Friday, there will be no change to the election results. After all, when was the last time any state leader who won election gave up his power and admitted tampering and that an opposition leader should instead be in power? It would be political suicide, and could lead to even worse things for Voronin.

Don't be surprised if the latest news out of Moldova Saturday is more protests, possibly turning violent. While it seems only a few of last week's protesters took part in the destruction of government offices and that most were peaceful, a rigged-election turned rigged-recount in the minds of the protesters won't bode well for the standing government - if it is standing much longer.

**UPDATE: If you would like to find out more about what is happening in Moldova in relation to protests, alleged brutality, and possible government fraud, Jamie Dodge has directed me to this blog from a source inside Moldova that has many posts relating to such things as well as reaction from European governments. Jamie's blog, which also has information, can be found here.

Democracy's Meltdown in Fiji

Fiji's President Ratu Josefa Iloilo has taken many steps away from democracy in past days, as he abolished the state's constitution, sacked all judges on the judiciary committee, and appointed himself head of state. He also re-appointed Commodore Frank Bainimarama as interim Prime Minister only days after his Ministership, undertaken in 2006 after a military coup, was ruled unconstitutional by the Judiciary Committee's Court of Appeals.

Bainimarama has also appointed a censor for all of the state's media outlets, and reports that foreign media have been locked out of the country have also been coming out of the island nation. Section 16 of the new language adopted by the president reads that "any broadcaster or publisher must submit all material to the Secretary for Information before publication."

In 2006, after Bainimarama's coup, the military forced Fiji's leading daily newspaper and sole TV station to close after the military attempted to censor their news. Saturday, the Fiji Times, the nation's largest newspaper which has been in print since 1869, was forced to run its edition with huge blank spots after articles relating to the incidents were censored by the government's censor appointed by the Secretary of Information.

Several articles also ran that praised the new government as a "fresh start", probably forcibly printed, as the editor of the paper, Netani Rika, has seemingly been left with no choice. Two managing directors of the newspaper have been deported from Fiji in the past year.

Leaders from around the world, including US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton as well as Australian politicians, have slammed Iloila and Bainimarama for the coups and for the censorship of journalists. Pro-journalism activist groups have also greatly criticised the actions, calling them a push against journalist's rights that they say should be universal: freedom of speech and freedom of the press.

It should be interesting to see how this story develops and whether international pressure will be placed on the island nation, something it seemingly could not withstand. Otherwise, Iloila and Bainimarama are set to have five more years of power, and, without a constitution, power to do whatever they wish. And it is unlikely to stop with the censorship of journalists.

Moldovan Protester Beaten, Journalists Kidnapped

This is video of a 23-year-old student who came back to Moldova from studying in France to vote in last week's election. After the Communist Party claimed victory (amidst accusations that the elections were rigged), he, like many other students joined in protests against the government. He tells JurnalTV that the protests were peaceful, and that after being arrested by government police, he was beaten by them "continually from Tuesday to Thursday" for assisting a Swedish news crew in translating from Romanian. Apparently, when his mother inquired as to where she could find him, she was told to "go look in the morgue".

Sources from Moldova have been telling me that the government has blocked social media sites in the state in attempts to cut people off from releasing stories and images of what is happening there. They also tell me that up to 500 people have been beaten and arrested, and many fear that those arrested could be killed, and that some might already be dead.

I have also been told that several journalists have been kidnapped by people thought to be secret government agents. A Moldovan news agency said several journalists have been detained; one, a woman, by four men dressed in white civilian clothes. She and another were released after being questioned, and said they were told "not to spread lies" about the situation there. At least one remains unaccounted for.

It has also been reported that an airplane from Russia landed at Chisinau International Airport Wednesday night, and seen being carried off it were crates of grenades and tear gas canisters, all thought to be for the government's police in their attempts to subdue protesters who they say have turned violent.

Protesters, on the other hand, claim instigators were purposely placed in the crowds by government officials to induce violence and place blame for destruction and violence on the protesters themselves. The protesters say their motives are purely peaceful, and that police brutality has led to some of the violence by protesters.

International Organizations Amnesty International and Reporters sans frontières have pushed for fairness for protesters and journalists and protection from police brutality.

"[Amnesty International] urges the authorities to independently and thoroughly investigate reports of use of excessive force by police. Detainees should also be promptly charged with a recognizable criminal offence or released and granted access to lawyers, doctors, and to have their families informed about their detention," read a statement released by an Amnesty International spokesperson.

Clear lines have been drawn between the government and protesters, and with both sides often releasing conflicting information, it is sometimes difficult to sift through. It does seem that a repressive Communist government has overstepped its boundaries and infringed upon some civil liberties, however.

Photos From Moldova

A source in Moldova provided me with some photos of the protests there.
Photos by Nicolai Mihailiuc
Provided by Tirsina Rodion, whose blogs you can find here and here.

[Social Media] Revolution in Moldova

In Chisinau, the capital of ex-Soviet state Moldova, the social media revolution might have found its face - in a real-life revolution.

Tens of thousands of people, most of them students and other young adults, have gathered in the capital city to protest what they call a rigged election by the Communist Party, headed by president Vladimir Voronin. Protestors say the ruling party manipulated elections to show a 50% majority, which allows them to change the nation's constitution to hand Voronin a third term, currently not allowed under Moldovan law.

President Voronin claims neighboring Romania, whose relationship with the Moldovan premier has continually deteriorated since Voronin came into office as president in 2001, has played a major role in the opposition protests. Voronin does have a history of bad blood with Romania, stemming from his time as Moldova's Interior Minister from 1989-90 under Soviet rule. Pro-Romanian protesters set his headquarters on fire in 1989. He has claimed recently that Romania, a newly-inducted member of the European Union, was trying to "absorb" Moldova.

Wenesday, Voronin declared Romanian ambassador to Moldova Filip Teodorescu "personae non grata", and ordered him and his envoy expelled from the state within 24 hours. Later that day, Romania appointed a new envoy, headed by diplomat Mihnea Constantinescu, who served as chief of staff to the past two Romanian prime ministers, Adrian Nastase and Calin Popescu Tariceanu. Prior to that, he was the Romanian secretary of state.

The most interesting facet of this story, however, is the manner in which the protests, which have destroyed government buildings and led to over 200 arrests so far since they began Tuesday, were organized. Much of the organization came via online social media networks Twitter and Facebook, a hint that such sites might finally be recognized internationally as something more than mere places to chat and network.

On Twitter, which allows users 140 characters to post messages, which are consolidated in a search-engine type of forum, the hashtag #pman served as a place for protesters to organize themselves and communicate with thousands of other protesters in Chisinau.

Another website has mashed up a Twitter feed with pictures, video, blog posts, and articles relating to the protests.

Thursday afternoon, Twitter users involved in the protests were claiming that Russian instigators were inducing rioting within crowds to spurn more arrests, as well as Moldovan secret police using surveillance and undercover operations to quell protesters. Reports that Facebook was shut down by the Moldovan government were also coming out via Twitter. Still, Thursday, sentiments remained strong amongst the online community involved in the protests, who were "Tweeting" in several languages, including Romanian, Russian, and English.

"[Voronin] must understand, we no longer support communism," said one protester. Another message being "Tweeted" by protesters stated: "Friday, at 10 a.m., we will be there. With a flower in our hand, and without vandalism. We are not thugs!"

As technology has evolved so quickly over the past ten years, so has the generation that was brought up with that technology. As this generation, my generation, comes of age and realizes its potential, so it is realizing the tool belt around its waist is larger and contains more tools than any generation before it. And so it just might be this generation, the online generation, that could use that ever-expanding tool belt to rebuild and restructure the world we live in.

North Korea Plans To Launch Missile

In the past month, news has grown within the international community that North Korea will launch a ballistic missile, most recently speculated to be scheduled for launch April 4. The story has received little attention until the past week, when Japan announced it was preparing its missile defense systems in preparations for the launch, and US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Obama lashed a harsh tongue on North Korea for its actions.

North Korea says the missile, a Taepodong-2, carries a satellite which will help the nation learn more about space, but others, including the US, Japan, and South Korea, say it could carry a warhead that could reach locations as far as Hawaii.

Six-party talks have been ongoing between the US, Japan, South Korea, Russia, China, and North Korea, which could be threatened should North Korea continue with the launch.

This all seems to be a game of politics, however, as North Korea attempts to ratify itself as a legitimate nuclear contender. Some western states have criticized the nation as more of a fear-monger than actual threat, but with rumors that Iran and North Korea may have somehow collaborated on nuclear plans, the missile launch comes as a legitimate threat to nearby nations. It is, nonetheless, a major security threat, and comes as recently US President Obama and Russian President Medvedev spoke about diminishing their missile arsenals.

Japan's mobilization of its missile defense system sent a clear message to North Korea that should any "debris" fall over the island nation, its defense system would be used. North Korea retorted that any attempts to intercept the missile by Japan would result in strikes on Japanese targets.

The US has also readied warships equipped with missile defense systems off the coast of South Korea, but officials say they are unlikely to be used unless the missile is headed for Hawaii, something, they admit, is quite unlikely.

There are UN sanctions against North Korean ballistics at stake, according to political leaders, that will be broken if (and probably more likely when) North Korea launches the missile. However, it seems as though Kim Jong Il now has no choice, having backed himself into a corner in the international system. Were he to forfeit the launch now, it would only make a mockery of his valiant attempts to prove a legitimate threat in northeast Asia and to his nuclear-able western counterparts.

A successful test would also show other states that North Korea is not afraid of global pressure and give it confidence in its ballistics program.

All should be told within the next four days, however, as the missile has (according to US spy planes, which North Korea has also threatened to shoot down) been being assembled and fueled under a large canopy, and should be due to launch sometime before April 8.